Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultKarlberg to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Järfälla vs Karlberg preview and prediction
The match
Järfälla host Karlberg in the Ettan Norra on Thursday 17 September, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Jarfallavallen. Järfälla are 15th with 24 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Karlberg sit 10th on 37 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Järfälla's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Gefle IF 1–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Karlberg's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Arlanda 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Karlberg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.0 for Järfälla and 2.1 for Karlberg. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 63%.
Our pre-match pick was Karlberg to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Järfälla 1–2 Karlberg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Järfälla21%fair 4.68 · @3.30
Draw15%fair 6.86 · @3.50
Karlberg64%fair 1.56 · @1.85
3.12Expected goals
1.05Järfälla xG
2.07Karlberg xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–110%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Järfälla 1.0 – 2.1 Karlberg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Karlberg to win✗
64%
1.56
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Karlberg ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Karlberg / FT Karlberg✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
Järfälla – last 6
LLLLLL
12 Sep
@ Gefle IF
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs FBK Karlstad
0–3
L
29 Aug
vs Assyriska FF
0–2
L
21 Aug
@ Stockholm Internazionale
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ Sollentuna
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs IF Karlstad
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Karlberg – last 6
WLDLWW
12 Sep
vs Arlanda
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Piteå
0–3
L
31 Aug
@ Hammarby Talang
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs AFC Eskilstuna
0–3
L
18 Aug
vs IK brage
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Stocksund
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Järfälla and Karlberg.
Our pick is Karlberg to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Järfälla vs Karlberg?
On our numbers Järfälla have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Karlberg 64%.
How many goals will there be in Järfälla vs Karlberg?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Järfälla vs Karlberg?
Our predicted score is Järfälla 1–2 Karlberg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Järfälla vs Karlberg?
Järfälla vs Karlberg (Ettan Norra) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Jarfallavallen.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
