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Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Arsenio Erico

Nacional Asuncion

WWDDD
2–1
FT

Libertad Asuncion

LDWLW

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion prediction & analysis

75%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Libertad Asuncion to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓44% · @2.06
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.01

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion preview and prediction

The match

The Division Profesional Apertura sees Nacional Asuncion take on Libertad Asuncion on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.

Form guide

Nacional Asuncion's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Libertad Asuncion's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.

Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.

Head to head

The last meeting, on 19 March 2026, finished Libertad Asuncion 2–1 Nacional Asuncion.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Nacional Asuncion and 1.1 for Libertad Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Libertad Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Nacional Asuncion44%fair 2.26 · @2.06
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.25
Libertad Asuncion34%fair 2.96 · @3.40
2.51Expected goals
1.36Nacional Asuncion xG
1.14Libertad Asuncion xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%

From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.4 – 1.1 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNacional Asuncion to win ✓44%2.262.06
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓56%1.791.80
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.431.36
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗55%1.831.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.331.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.27–
Half-time / full-timeHT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion ✓24%4.10–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11%9.01–

Form

Nacional Asuncion – last 6

WWDDDW
10 Mayvs Sportivo Trinidense2–1W
4 May@ Club Guarani1–0W
21 Apr@ Sportivo Ameliano1–1D
12 Aprvs Cerro Porteno0–0D
31 Mar@ 2 de Mayo1–1D
27 Marvs Sportivo Luqueno3–2W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Libertad Asuncion – last 6

LDWLWL
20 May@ Independiente del Valle1–4L
14 Mayvs 2 de Mayo0–0D
11 May@ Sportivo Luqueno3–2W
5 May@ Rosario Central0–1L
2 Mayvs Club Sp. San Lorenzo5–0W
28 Aprvs Independiente del Valle2–3L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

19 Mar 2026Libertad Asuncion v Nacional Asuncion2–1
Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion head-to-head page →

More Division Profesional Apertura predictions

FT Sportivo Ameliano1 Sportivo Trinidense2 138%2.58X24%3.15238%2.62 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Cerro Porteno2 Rubio NU0 161%1.52X19%3.65220%6.20 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Libertad Asuncion 34%.

How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.