Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 55% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓52% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.98
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno preview and prediction
The match
Sportivo Luqueno travel to Estadio Arsenio Erico in the Division Profesional Apertura on Friday 27 March (22:30 WAT) to face Nacional Asuncion.
Form guide
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Libertad Asuncion 1–2 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sportivo Luqueno's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to 2 de Mayo 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.4 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.9 for Sportivo Luqueno. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional Asuncion 52%, draw 22%, Sportivo Luqueno 26%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 55% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo Luqueno. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional Asuncion52%fair 1.93 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Sportivo Luqueno26%fair 3.86 · @3.80
2.28Expected goals
1.40Nacional Asuncion xG
0.88Sportivo Luqueno xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–010%
2–010%
0–19%
2–19%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.4 – 0.9 Sportivo Luqueno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✓
52%
1.93
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✗
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.98
–
Form
Nacional Asuncion – last 5
LDDDW
19 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Deportivo Recoleta
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Cerro Porteno
2–0
W
1.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Sportivo Luqueno – last 6
LLDLLD
23 Mar
vs 2 de Mayo
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Olimpia
0–1
L
13 Mar
vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
0–1
L
2 Mar
vs Rubio NU
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Luqueno.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sportivo Luqueno 26%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Sportivo Luqueno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Arsenio Erico
