Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Libertad Asuncion to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad Asuncion to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Sportivo Ameliano host Libertad Asuncion in the Division Profesional Apertura on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Ameliano Villeta.
Form guide
Sportivo Ameliano's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Rubio NU 2–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Cerro Porteno 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Libertad Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.3 for Libertad Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Libertad Asuncion to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Libertad Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sportivo Ameliano29%fair 3.40 · @3.05
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.05
Libertad Asuncion48%fair 2.08 · @2.30
2.28Expected goals
0.95Sportivo Ameliano xG
1.33Libertad Asuncion xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Sportivo Ameliano 1.0 – 1.3 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Libertad Asuncion to win✗
48%
2.08
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Libertad Asuncion / FT Libertad Asuncion✗
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.35
–
Form
Sportivo Ameliano – last 6
WDDDLD
24 Mar
@ Rubio NU
2–1
W
20 Mar
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Club Guarani
0–0
D
10 Mar
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
20 Feb
@ Nacional Asuncion
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Libertad Asuncion – last 6
LWWWWL
22 Mar
vs Cerro Porteno
2–3
L
19 Mar
vs Nacional Asuncion
2–1
W
14 Mar
@ 2 de Mayo
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Sportivo Luqueno
1–0
W
3 Mar
@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo
7–0
W
26 Feb
@ Olimpia
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Ameliano and Libertad Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion?
On our numbers Sportivo Ameliano have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Libertad Asuncion 48%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion?
Sportivo Ameliano vs Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ameliano Villeta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Ameliano Villeta
Olimpia
2 de Mayo