Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.94 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✗58% · @1.94
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.98
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano preview and prediction
The match
Sportivo Ameliano travel to Estadio Arsenio Erico in the Division Profesional Apertura on Friday 20 February (00:30 WAT) to face Nacional Asuncion.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.8 for Sportivo Ameliano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional Asuncion 58%, draw 25%, Sportivo Ameliano 17%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Nacional Asuncion to win at 1.94 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional Asuncion or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional Asuncion58%fair 1.72 · @1.94
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.15
Sportivo Ameliano17%fair 5.85 · @3.85
2.46Expected goals
1.67Nacional Asuncion xG
0.79Sportivo Ameliano xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.7 – 0.8 Sportivo Ameliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✗
58%
1.72
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.98
–
Form
Nacional Asuncion – last 1
W
16 Feb
@ Cerro Porteno
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Sportivo Ameliano – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs 2 de Mayo
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional Asuncion and Sportivo Ameliano.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sportivo Ameliano 17%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · Estadio Arsenio Erico
Libertad Asuncion0
Rubio NU1