Value bet: Cerro Porteno to win @ 1.78 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro Porteno to win ✗64% · @1.78
Double chanceCerro Porteno or draw ✗88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.39
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Nacional Asuncion travel to General Pablo Rojas in the Division Profesional Apertura on Monday 16 February (00:30 WAT) to face Cerro Porteno.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Cerro Porteno and 0.7 for Nacional Asuncion. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro Porteno 64%, draw 24%, Nacional Asuncion 12%.
Safer route: Cerro Porteno or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Cerro Porteno to win at 1.78 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Cerro Porteno 2–0 Nacional Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Porteno64%fair 1.57 · @1.78
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.30
Nacional Asuncion12%fair 8.21 · @4.45
2.65Expected goals
1.91Cerro Porteno xG
0.74Nacional Asuncion xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Porteno 1.9 – 0.7 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro Porteno to win✗
64%
1.57
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Cerro Porteno or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.22
Half-time result
Cerro Porteno ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro Porteno / FT Cerro Porteno✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.39
–
Form
Cerro Porteno
No recent results on record.
Nacional Asuncion
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Porteno and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Cerro Porteno have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional Asuncion 12%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Cerro Porteno 2–0 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion?
Cerro Porteno vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Apertura) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at General Pablo Rojas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Division Profesional Apertura · Paraguay · General Pablo Rojas
