Value bet: Firpo to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFirpo to win ✗39% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Águila vs Firpo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Division sees Águila take on Firpo on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT). Águila are 4th with 30 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Firpo sit 1st on 40 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Águila's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Izalco 4–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Firpo's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with FAS 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Águila and 1.4 for Firpo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Águila 36%, draw 26%, Firpo 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Firpo to win at 2.75 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Águila 1–1 Firpo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Águila36%fair 2.81 · @2.55
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.95
Firpo39%fair 2.57 · @2.75
2.63Expected goals
1.28Águila xG
1.35Firpo xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Águila 1.3 – 1.4 Firpo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Firpo to win✗
39%
2.57
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Firpo / FT Firpo✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Form
Águila – last 6
WWLDWD
22 Apr
vs Izalco
4–1
W
16 Apr
@ Alianza
2–0
W
5 Apr
@ Municipal Limeño
0–2
L
1 Apr
vs Fuerte San Francisco
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Hércules
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Isidro Metapán
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Firpo – last 6
DWLWWW
26 Apr
vs FAS
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Batanecos
3–0
W
16 Apr
vs Isidro Metapán
0–2
L
8 Apr
@ Batanecos
2–0
W
2 Apr
vs Cacahuatique
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Inter
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Águila and Firpo.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Águila vs Firpo?
On our numbers Águila have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Firpo 39%.
How many goals will there be in Águila vs Firpo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Águila vs Firpo?
Our predicted score is Águila 1–1 Firpo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Águila vs Firpo?
Águila vs Firpo (Primera Division) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
