Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Cerezo Osaka or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cerezo Osaka to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceCerezo Osaka or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki preview and prediction
The match
Cerezo Osaka host V-varen Nagasaki in the J1 League on Saturday 9 May, with kick-off at 08:00 (WAT) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium. Cerezo Osaka are 2nd with 31 points from 18 games (in the top four), while V-varen Nagasaki sit 9th on 21 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–2 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
V-varen Nagasaki's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Fagiano Okayama 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cerezo Osaka arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished V-varen Nagasaki 1–0 Cerezo Osaka.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Cerezo Osaka and 0.8 for V-varen Nagasaki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Cerezo Osaka to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cerezo Osaka or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerezo Osaka65%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.70
V-varen Nagasaki15%fair 6.52 · @3.90
2.63Expected goals
1.87Cerezo Osaka xG
0.76V-varen Nagasaki xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 1.9 – 0.8 V-varen Nagasaki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our pick is Cerezo Osaka or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
On our numbers Cerezo Osaka have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and V-varen Nagasaki 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Our predicted score is Cerezo Osaka 1–0 V-varen Nagasaki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki?
Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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