V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka preview and prediction
The match
Avispa Fukuoka travel to Peace Stadium in the J1 League on Sunday 15 March (06:00 WAT) to face V-varen Nagasaki. V-varen Nagasaki are 9th with 21 points from 18 games (in the bottom three), while Avispa Fukuoka sit 10th on 21 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
V-varen Nagasaki's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Gamba Osaka 2–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Avispa Fukuoka's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Nagoya Grampus 1–5 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
V-varen Nagasaki arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.8 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.4 for Avispa Fukuoka. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.81, so there is value in it. Predicted score: V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
V-varen Nagasaki46%fair 2.18 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Avispa Fukuoka31%fair 3.23 · @3.30
3.20Expected goals
1.78V-varen Nagasaki xG
1.42Avispa Fukuoka xG
55%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–27%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: V-varen Nagasaki 1.8 – 1.4 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
V-varen Nagasaki to win✓
46%
2.18
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.63
–
Half-time / full-time
HT V-varen Nagasaki / FT V-varen Nagasaki✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Form
V-varen Nagasaki – last 4
LWWL
8 Mar
@ Gamba Osaka
2–3
L
28 Feb
vs Cerezo Osaka
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Nagoya Grampus
3–1
W
13 Feb
@ Vissel Kobe
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avispa Fukuoka – last 4
LLLL
7 Mar
vs Nagoya Grampus
1–5
L
27 Feb
@ Vissel Kobe
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Kyoto Sanga
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cerezo Osaka
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between V-varen Nagasaki and Avispa Fukuoka.
What is the prediction for V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka?
On our numbers V-varen Nagasaki have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Avispa Fukuoka 31%.
How many goals will there be in V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Our predicted score is V-varen Nagasaki 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka?
V-varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka (J1 League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Peace Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
