Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Trelleborg to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTrelleborg to win ✓42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44
Lund vs Trelleborg preview and prediction
The match
Trelleborg travel to Klostergardens Idrottsplats in the Ettan Södra on Friday 16 October (18:00 WAT) to face Lund. Lund are 2nd with 53 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Trelleborg sit 1st on 69 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lund's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Trollhättan 4–3 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Trelleborg's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Kristianstad 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Trelleborg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 August 2026, finished Trelleborg 2–2 Lund.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Lund and 1.7 for Trelleborg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lund 35%, draw 24%, Trelleborg 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Trelleborg to win at 2.62 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Lund 1–1 Trelleborg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lund35%fair 2.88 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.20
Trelleborg42%fair 2.40 · @2.62
3.21Expected goals
1.52Lund xG
1.69Trelleborg xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Lund 1.5 – 1.7 Trelleborg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Lund vs Trelleborg?
On our numbers Lund have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Trelleborg 42%.
How many goals will there be in Lund vs Trelleborg?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lund vs Trelleborg?
Our predicted score is Lund 1–1 Trelleborg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Lund vs Trelleborg?
Lund vs Trelleborg (Ettan Södra) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Klostergardens Idrottsplats.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
