Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: MP to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMP to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceMP or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.84
MP vs SJK Akatemia preview and prediction
The match
MP host SJK Akatemia in the Ykkösliiga on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto. MP are 7th with 30 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while SJK Akatemia sit 10th on 17 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
MP's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Haka 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
SJK Akatemia's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to JäPS 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
MP arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 July 2026, finished SJK Akatemia 1–1 MP. Across their last 2 meetings MP have won 0, SJK Akatemia 1, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for MP and 0.8 for SJK Akatemia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: MP 64%, draw 21%, SJK Akatemia 14%.
Safer route: MP or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.57.
Value angle: MP to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was MP or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: MP 1–0 SJK Akatemia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MP64%fair 1.56 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.50
SJK Akatemia14%fair 6.95 · @3.60
2.72Expected goals
1.93MP xG
0.79SJK Akatemia xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: MP 1.9 – 0.8 SJK Akatemia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is MP or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win MP vs SJK Akatemia?
On our numbers MP have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and SJK Akatemia 14%.
How many goals will there be in MP vs SJK Akatemia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MP vs SJK Akatemia?
Our predicted score is MP 1–0 SJK Akatemia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is MP vs SJK Akatemia?
MP vs SJK Akatemia (Ykkösliiga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
