Value bet: Haka to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHaka to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceHaka or draw ✗83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.52
MP vs Haka preview and prediction
The match
Haka travel to Mikkelin Urheilupuisto in the Ykkösliiga on Sunday 5 July (16:30 WAT) to face MP. MP are 7th with 30 points from 27 games (in the bottom half), while Haka sit 3rd on 47 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
MP's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to PK-35 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Haka's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Kooteepee 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for MP and 1.8 for Haka. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: MP 17%, draw 23%, Haka 61%.
Safer route: Haka or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Haka to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: MP 0–1 Haka. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MP17%fair 5.99 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.60
Haka61%fair 1.65 · @1.75
2.60Expected goals
0.81MP xG
1.79Haka xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: MP 0.8 – 1.8 Haka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Haka to win✗
61%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Haka or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.42
Half-time result
Haka ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Haka / FT Haka✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.52
–
Form
MP – last 6
LDLWWL
26 Jun
@ PK-35
1–2
L
14 Jun
vs Klubi-04
2–2
D
6 Jun
@ EIF
0–1
L
31 May
vs EIF
1–0
W
22 May
@ JäPS
1–0
W
17 May
vs JIPPO
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Haka – last 6
LWWLWL
27 Jun
vs Kooteepee
0–2
L
15 Jun
@ SJK Akatemia
2–0
W
8 Jun
@ Kooteepee
2–0
W
5 Jun
vs JäPS
1–2
L
29 May
vs JIPPO
2–1
W
26 May
@ VPS
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MP and Haka.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win MP vs Haka?
On our numbers MP have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Haka 61%.
How many goals will there be in MP vs Haka?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MP vs Haka?
Our predicted score is MP 0–1 Haka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is MP vs Haka?
MP vs Haka (Ykkösliiga) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
