Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Nacional SP to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEA to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
AEA vs Nacional SP preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A4 sees AEA take on Nacional SP on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for AEA and 1.0 for Nacional SP. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: AEA 43%, draw 23%, Nacional SP 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Nacional SP to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: AEA 1–0 Nacional SP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEA43%fair 2.31 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Nacional SP33%fair 2.99 · @3.30
2.10Expected goals
1.15AEA xG
0.96Nacional SP xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: AEA 1.1 – 1.0 Nacional SP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEA to win✗
43%
2.31
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.23
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEA / FT AEA✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.14
–
Form
AEA – last 2
LL
5 Mar
@ Inter de Bebedouro
0–4
L
25 Feb
@ Joseense
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional SP – last 2
LL
4 Mar
vs Taquaritinga
0–4
L
25 Feb
vs EC Lemense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEA and Nacional SP.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win AEA vs Nacional SP?
On our numbers AEA have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nacional SP 33%.
How many goals will there be in AEA vs Nacional SP?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEA vs Nacional SP?
Our predicted score is AEA 1–0 Nacional SP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is AEA vs Nacional SP?
AEA vs Nacional SP (Paulista A4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A4 · Brazil
Comercial3
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