Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 58% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRio Claro to win ✗37% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Itapirense vs Rio Claro preview and prediction
The match
Itapirense host Rio Claro in the Paulista A3 on Thursday 26 February, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Itapirense and 1.2 for Rio Claro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Itapirense 35%, draw 28%, Rio Claro 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.83 – 58% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Itapirense 1–1 Rio Claro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Itapirense35%fair 2.87 · @2.75
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.00
Rio Claro37%fair 2.67 · @2.50
2.54Expected goals
1.34Itapirense xG
1.21Rio Claro xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Itapirense 1.3 – 1.2 Rio Claro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rio Claro to win✗
37%
2.67
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.38
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Itapirense / FT Itapirense✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.54
–
Form
Itapirense – last 2
LL
22 Feb
@ Portuguesa Santista
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Bandeirante SP
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rio Claro – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Desportivo Brasil
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Itapirense and Rio Claro.
What is the prediction for Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
On our numbers Itapirense have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Rio Claro 37%.
How many goals will there be in Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Our predicted score is Itapirense 1–1 Rio Claro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Itapirense vs Rio Claro?
Itapirense vs Rio Claro (Paulista A3) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A3 · Brazil
