Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMexico to win ✓63% · @1.23
Double chanceMexico or draw ✓86% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.07
Mexico vs Iceland preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees Mexico take on Iceland on Thursday 26 February, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.4 for Mexico and 0.7 for Iceland. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 51% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mexico 63%, draw 23%, Iceland 14%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 – 51% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.40, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mexico 1–0 Iceland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mexico63%fair 1.58 · @1.23
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @5.50
Iceland14%fair 7.12 · @13.00
2.17Expected goals
1.44Mexico xG
0.73Iceland xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Mexico 1.4 – 0.7 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Mexico
Iceland
Attack vs Friendlies average
-20%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
-5%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.38
0.95
Our own ratings from every Friendlies result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✓
63%
1.58
1.23
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
2.38 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.55 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✓
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.07
–
Form
Mexico
No recent results on record.
Iceland
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Iceland.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Mexico vs Iceland?
On our numbers Mexico have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iceland 14%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Iceland?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Iceland?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Iceland?
Mexico vs Iceland (Friendlies) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
