Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Porto BA to win @ 2.35 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPorto BA to win ✗46% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.80
Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA preview and prediction
The match
Porto BA travel to Carneiro in the Baiano 1 on Sunday 15 February (20:00 WAT) to face Atlético Alagoinhas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Atlético Alagoinhas and 1.3 for Porto BA. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Alagoinhas 32%, draw 22%, Porto BA 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Porto BA to win at 2.35 – 46% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atlético Alagoinhas 1–1 Porto BA. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Alagoinhas32%fair 3.10 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Porto BA46%fair 2.19 · @2.35
2.31Expected goals
1.02Atlético Alagoinhas xG
1.29Porto BA xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Atlético Alagoinhas 1.0 – 1.3 Porto BA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Porto BA to win✗
46%
2.19
2.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Porto BA / FT Porto BA✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.80
–
Form
Atlético Alagoinhas
No recent results on record.
Porto BA
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Alagoinhas and Porto BA.
What is the prediction for Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA?
On our numbers Atlético Alagoinhas have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Porto BA 46%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA?
Our predicted score is Atlético Alagoinhas 1–1 Porto BA, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA?
Atlético Alagoinhas vs Porto BA (Baiano 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Carneiro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Baiano 1 · Brazil · Carneiro
