Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.40Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercedes to win ✓44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.48
Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera C sees Mercedes take on Puerto Nuevo on Friday 25 September, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT). Mercedes are 5th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Puerto Nuevo sit 9th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mercedes's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Leandro N. Alem 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Puerto Nuevo's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Deportivo Paraguayo 2–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Mercedes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished Puerto Nuevo 1–1 Mercedes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Mercedes and 0.9 for Puerto Nuevo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mercedes 44%, draw 24%, Puerto Nuevo 32%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Mercedes 1–0 Puerto Nuevo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mercedes44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.80
Puerto Nuevo32%fair 3.12 · @3.10
1.96Expected goals
1.09Mercedes xG
0.87Puerto Nuevo xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mercedes 1.1 – 0.9 Puerto Nuevo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
On our numbers Mercedes have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Puerto Nuevo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Our predicted score is Mercedes 1–0 Puerto Nuevo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?
Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo (Primera C) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
