Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercedes to win ✗42% · @2.33
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.29
Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur preview and prediction
The match
The Primera C sees Mercedes take on Estrella Del Sur on Friday 31 July, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT). Mercedes are 5th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Estrella Del Sur sit 3rd on 48 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mercedes's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Berazategui 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estrella Del Sur's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Deportivo Paraguayo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Estrella Del Sur 0–0 Mercedes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for Mercedes and 0.8 for Estrella Del Sur. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mercedes 42%, draw 29%, Estrella Del Sur 29%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Mercedes 1–0 Estrella Del Sur. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mercedes42%fair 2.38 · @2.33
Draw29%fair 3.47 · @2.85
Estrella Del Sur29%fair 3.44 · @3.20
1.89Expected goals
1.06Mercedes xG
0.84Estrella Del Sur xG
50%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–015%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mercedes 1.1 – 0.8 Estrella Del Sur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Mercedes
Estrella Del Sur
Attack vs Primera C average
+2%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-10%
Our expected goals here
0.98
0.80
Our own ratings from every Primera C result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur?
On our numbers Mercedes have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Estrella Del Sur 29%.
How many goals will there be in Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur?
Our predicted score is Mercedes 1–0 Estrella Del Sur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur?
Mercedes vs Estrella Del Sur (Primera C) kicks off on Friday 31 July 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Central Cordoba3
General Lamadrid1
Deportivo Español0
Leones de Rosario0