Value bet: Mercedes to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensores de Cambaceres to win ✓39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗72% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.21
Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes preview and prediction
The match
Mercedes travel to face Defensores de Cambaceres in the Primera C on Friday 8 May (23:00 WAT). Defensores de Cambaceres are 10th with 36 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Mercedes sit 5th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensores de Cambaceres's last 4: LWDL Most recently they lost to Leones de Rosario 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.9 for Defensores de Cambaceres and 0.8 for Mercedes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensores de Cambaceres 39%, draw 27%, Mercedes 34%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Mercedes to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Defensores de Cambaceres 0–0 Mercedes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensores de Cambaceres39%fair 2.56 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @2.75
Mercedes34%fair 2.93 · @3.30
1.73Expected goals
0.91Defensores de Cambaceres xG
0.82Mercedes xG
47%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
1–016%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Defensores de Cambaceres 0.9 – 0.8 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensores de Cambaceres to win✓
39%
2.56
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.21
–
Form
Defensores de Cambaceres – last 4
LWDL
20 Apr
vs Leones de Rosario
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Juventud Unida
3–0
W
20 Mar
@ General Lamadrid
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Estrella Del Sur
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Mercedes – last 1
D
5 Apr
@ Estrella Del Sur
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores de Cambaceres and Mercedes.
What is the prediction for Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Defensores de Cambaceres have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mercedes 34%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Defensores de Cambaceres 0–0 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes?
Defensores de Cambaceres vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
