Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 21 Jun 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultArsenal Sarandi to win ✓60% · @1.80

Double chanceArsenal Sarandi or draw ✓82% · @1.11

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.25

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.79

Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo preview and prediction

The match

The Primera B Metropolitana sees Arsenal Sarandi take on Deportivo Merlo on Sunday 21 June, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona. Arsenal Sarandi are 2nd with 77 points from 42 games (in the top four), while Deportivo Merlo sit 15th on 49 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 28 points shows the difference in quality this season.

Form guide

Arsenal Sarandi's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Deportivo Camioneros 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.

Deportivo Merlo's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Argentino de Merlo 2–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Deportivo Merlo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.7 for Deportivo Merlo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.

Betting angles

Win chances: Arsenal Sarandi 60%, draw 22%, Deportivo Merlo 18%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 51% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Arsenal Sarandi to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arsenal Sarandi 1–0 Deportivo Merlo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

Arsenal Sarandi60%fair 1.66 · @1.80

Draw22%fair 4.63 · @2.95

Deportivo Merlo18%fair 5.45 · @4.80

2.17Expected goals

1.51Arsenal Sarandi xG

0.66Deportivo Merlo xG

51%Both score

36%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–017%

2–013%

0–011%

1–111%

2–19%

0–18%

From our goals model: Arsenal Sarandi 1.5 – 0.7 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Arsenal Sarandi to win ✓	60%	1.66	1.80 ▲
Double chance	Arsenal Sarandi or draw ✓	82%	1.22	1.11
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.97	2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	62%	1.61	1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	64%	1.56	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	83%	1.21	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	46%	2.16	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Arsenal Sarandi / FT Arsenal Sarandi ✓	35%	2.86	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	17%	5.79	–

Form

Arsenal Sarandi – last 6

WLLDDW

13 Jun	@ Deportivo Camioneros	2–1	W
6 Jun	vs Sportivo Italiano	1–3	L
31 May	@ San Martín Burzaco	0–2	L
26 May	@ Flandria	0–0	D
22 May	vs Villa San Carlos	2–2	D
18 Apr	@ Excursionistas	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Deportivo Merlo – last 6

DLWDWW

14 Jun	vs Argentino de Merlo	2–2	D
6 Jun	@ Talleres Remedios	0–2	L
2 Jun	vs Deportivo Laferrere	2–1	W
26 May	vs Liniers	0–0	D
22 May	@ Brown DE Adrogue	1–0	W
3 May	vs Argentino Quilmes	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	42	24	9	9	+36	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	42	21	14	7	+28	77
3	Sportivo Italiano	42	20	12	10	+15	72
4	Talleres Remedios	42	20	11	11	+19	71
5	Deportivo Camioneros	42	19	13	10	+15	70
6	Villa Dalmine	42	18	14	10	+12	68
7	Real Pilar	42	18	12	12	+4	66
8	Deportivo Armenio	42	17	12	13	+3	63
9	Comunicaciones	42	15	15	12	+5	60
10	Deportivo Laferrere	42	15	14	13	-2	59
11	Villa San Carlos	42	12	15	15	-5	51
12	San Martín Burzaco	42	12	15	15	-6	51
13	Argentino de Merlo	42	13	11	18	-6	50
14	Flandria	42	13	10	19	-10	49
15	Deportivo Merlo	42	11	16	15	-15	49
16	Liniers	42	11	15	16	-7	48
17	Argentino Quilmes	42	10	17	15	-8	47
18	Dock Sud	42	11	14	17	-9	47
19	Defensores Unidos	42	10	16	16	-6	46
20	Brown DE Adrogue	42	10	16	16	-12	46
21	UAI Urquiza	42	8	21	13	-10	45
22	Ituzaingó	42	1	14	27	-41	17

Team

Pts

+36

+28

+15

+19

+15

+12

-2

-5

-6

-6

-10

-15

-7

-8

-9

-6

-12

-10

-41

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?

Our pick is Arsenal Sarandi to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?

On our numbers Arsenal Sarandi have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Merlo 18%.

How many goals will there be in Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?

Our predicted score is Arsenal Sarandi 1–0 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo?

Arsenal Sarandi vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes