Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArgentino de Merlo to win ✗39% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.65
Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas preview and prediction
The match
Argentino de Merlo host Excursionistas in the Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday 14 April, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva. Argentino de Merlo are 13th with 50 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Excursionistas sit 1st on 81 points (top of the table). A gap of 31 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Argentino de Merlo's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Arsenal Sarandi 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Excursionistas's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Talleres Remedios 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Excursionistas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.6 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Argentino de Merlo and 0.9 for Excursionistas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Argentino de Merlo 39%, draw 26%, Excursionistas 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Argentino de Merlo 0–0 Excursionistas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Argentino de Merlo39%fair 2.59 · @2.65
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.88
Excursionistas36%fair 2.81 · @2.65
1.84Expected goals
0.95Argentino de Merlo xG
0.89Excursionistas xG
51%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Argentino de Merlo 1.0 – 0.9 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Argentino de Merlo to win✗
39%
2.59
2.65
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.65
–
Form
Argentino de Merlo – last 6
LWLWWL
10 Apr
@ Arsenal Sarandi
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Ituzaingó
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Talleres Remedios
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Flandria
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Argentino Quilmes
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Excursionistas – last 5
DWWWW
11 Apr
vs Talleres Remedios
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Brown DE Adrogue
1–0
W
5 Mar
vs Defensores Unidos
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Dock Sud
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Deportivo Merlo
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Argentino de Merlo and Excursionistas.
What is the prediction for Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Argentino de Merlo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Excursionistas 36%.
How many goals will there be in Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Our predicted score is Argentino de Merlo 0–0 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas?
Argentino de Merlo vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Carlos Brieva.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
