Value bet: Mixco to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMixco to win64% · @1.85
Double chanceMixco or draw84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016% · fair 6.44
Mixco vs Xelajú preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Mixco take on Xelajú on Saturday 11 April, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT). Mixco are 3rd with 36 points from 22 games (in the top four), while Xelajú sit 1st on 39 points (top of the table). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mixco's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Marquense 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Xelajú's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Malacateco 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 February 2026, finished Xelajú 2–1 Mixco.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Mixco and 0.7 for Xelajú. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mixco 64%, draw 20%, Xelajú 16%.
Safer route: Mixco or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Mixco to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mixco 1–0 Xelajú. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mixco64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.25
Xelajú16%fair 6.15 · @3.90
2.40Expected goals
1.72Mixco xG
0.69Xelajú xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Mixco 1.7 – 0.7 Xelajú expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mixco vs Xelajú?
On our numbers Mixco have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Xelajú 16%.
How many goals will there be in Mixco vs Xelajú?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mixco vs Xelajú?
Our predicted score is Mixco 1–0 Xelajú, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mixco vs Xelajú?
Mixco vs Xelajú (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
