Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Municipal to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMunicipal to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.87
Xelajú vs Municipal preview and prediction
The match
Xelajú host Municipal in the Liga Nacional on Friday 20 March, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Mario Camposeco. Xelajú are 1st with 39 points from 22 games (top of the table), while Municipal sit 2nd on 38 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Xelajú's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Antigua GFC 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Municipal's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Aurora 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Xelajú and 1.2 for Municipal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xelajú 37%, draw 24%, Municipal 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Municipal to win at 2.80 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Xelajú 1–1 Municipal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xelajú37%fair 2.70 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Municipal39%fair 2.59 · @2.80
2.31Expected goals
1.14Xelajú xG
1.17Municipal xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Xelajú 1.1 – 1.2 Municipal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Municipal to win✗
39%
2.59
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.26
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Municipal / FT Municipal✗
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.87
–
Form
Xelajú – last 6
DDDWDW
15 Mar
vs Antigua GFC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Aurora
0–0
D
5 Mar
@ Cobán Imperial
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Mictlán
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Achuapa
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Municipal – last 6
WLWLWD
16 Mar
vs Aurora
4–1
W
4 Mar
@ Mixco
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Marquense
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Antigua GFC
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ Cobán Imperial
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xelajú and Municipal.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Xelajú vs Municipal?
On our numbers Xelajú have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Municipal 39%.
How many goals will there be in Xelajú vs Municipal?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xelajú vs Municipal?
Our predicted score is Xelajú 1–1 Municipal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Xelajú vs Municipal?
Xelajú vs Municipal (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mario Camposeco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
