Value bet: Mictlán to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMictlán to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chanceMictlán or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Mictlán vs Aurora preview and prediction
The match
Aurora travel to Estadio La Asuncion in the Liga Nacional on Wednesday 11 March (22:00 WAT) to face Mictlán. Mictlán are 9th with 27 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Aurora sit 11th on 20 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mictlán's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Xelajú 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Aurora's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Xelajú 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aurora arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Mictlán and 0.6 for Aurora. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mictlán 63%, draw 25%, Aurora 12%.
Safer route: Mictlán or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Mictlán to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Mictlán 1–0 Aurora. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mictlán63%fair 1.58 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.35
Aurora12%fair 8.11 · @4.00
2.38Expected goals
1.74Mictlán xG
0.64Aurora xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Mictlán 1.7 – 0.6 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mictlán to win✓
63%
1.58
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Mictlán or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Mictlán ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mictlán / FT Mictlán✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.20
–
Form
Mictlán – last 5
LDWLD
2 Mar
@ Xelajú
0–2
L
26 Feb
@ Mixco
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs Marquense
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Comunicaciones
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Antigua GFC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Aurora – last 6
DDDWLW
8 Mar
vs Xelajú
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Mixco
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Marquense
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mictlán and Aurora.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mictlán vs Aurora?
On our numbers Mictlán have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aurora 12%.
How many goals will there be in Mictlán vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mictlán vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Mictlán 1–0 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Mictlán vs Aurora?
Mictlán vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Asuncion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
