Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultXelajú to win ✓63% · @1.70
Double chanceXelajú or draw ✓84% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.35
Xelajú vs Mixco preview and prediction
The match
Mixco travel to Estadio Mario Camposeco in the Liga Nacional on Monday 23 February (03:00 WAT) to face Xelajú. Xelajú are 1st with 39 points from 22 games (top of the table), while Mixco sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Xelajú and 0.8 for Mixco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xelajú 63%, draw 21%, Mixco 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Xelajú 2–0 Mixco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xelajú63%fair 1.59 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.20
Mixco16%fair 6.31 · @5.00
2.72Expected goals
1.95Xelajú xG
0.78Mixco xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Xelajú 1.9 – 0.8 Mixco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Xelajú
Mixco
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
+24%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
+13%
Our expected goals here
2.35
0.86
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xelajú to win✓
63%
1.59
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Xelajú or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.18
Half-time result
Xelajú ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xelajú / FT Xelajú✓
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.35
–
Form
Xelajú – last 2
LW
19 Feb
@ Malacateco
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Marquense
4–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mixco – last 1
L
20 Feb
@ Marquense
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xelajú and Mixco.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Xelajú vs Mixco?
On our numbers Xelajú have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mixco 16%.
How many goals will there be in Xelajú vs Mixco?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xelajú vs Mixco?
Our predicted score is Xelajú 2–0 Mixco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Xelajú vs Mixco?
Xelajú vs Mixco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mario Camposeco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
