Value bet: Deportivo Maipu to win @ 3.60 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNueva Chicago to win ✗41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.74
Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Maipu travel to Estadio Nueva Chicago in the Primera Nacional on Monday 5 October (21:00 WAT) to face Nueva Chicago. Nueva Chicago are 17th with 37 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Deportivo Maipu sit 6th on 52 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nueva Chicago's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Almagro 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Deportivo Maipu's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Temperley 1–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Deportivo Maipu 1–0 Nueva Chicago.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Nueva Chicago and 0.9 for Deportivo Maipu. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nueva Chicago 41%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maipu 34%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Deportivo Maipu to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Nueva Chicago 1–0 Deportivo Maipu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nueva Chicago41%fair 2.46 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.90
Deportivo Maipu34%fair 2.98 · @3.60
1.95Expected goals
1.04Nueva Chicago xG
0.91Deportivo Maipu xG
48%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nueva Chicago 1.0 – 0.9 Deportivo Maipu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?
On our numbers Nueva Chicago have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Maipu 34%.
How many goals will there be in Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?
Our predicted score is Nueva Chicago 1–0 Deportivo Maipu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu?
Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Maipu (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nueva Chicago.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
