Value bet: Deportivo Madryn to win @ 3.80 – our chance 37% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Madryn to win ✗37% · @3.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.36
Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Defensores De Belgrano take on Deportivo Madryn on Monday 14 September, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Juan Pasquale. Defensores De Belgrano are 15th with 39 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Madryn sit 4th on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Defensores De Belgrano's last 5: DWLLD Most recently they drew with Los Andes 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Deportivo Madryn's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Ciudad de Bolívar 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Madryn arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Defensores De Belgrano and 1.0 for Deportivo Madryn. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Value angle: Deportivo Madryn to win at 3.80 – 37% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: Defensores De Belgrano 0–1 Deportivo Madryn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensores De Belgrano36%fair 2.76 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.75
Deportivo Madryn37%fair 2.73 · @3.80
2.00Expected goals
1.00Defensores De Belgrano xG
1.00Deportivo Madryn xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Defensores De Belgrano 1.0 – 1.0 Deportivo Madryn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Madryn to win✗
37%
2.73
3.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.36
–
Form
Defensores De Belgrano – last 6
DWLLDL
9 Sep
vs Los Andes
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Racing Cordoba
3–0
W
29 Aug
@ Ciudad de Bolívar
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Almirante Brown
0–2
L
15 Aug
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
9 Aug
@ Atletico Mitre
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Madryn – last 6
WLWWDW
6 Sep
vs Ciudad de Bolívar
3–1
W
30 Aug
@ Almirante Brown
0–1
L
25 Aug
vs Godoy Cruz
2–0
W
21 Aug
vs Atletico Mitre
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ San Martin Tucuman
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ CA Estudiantes
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores De Belgrano and Deportivo Madryn.
What is the prediction for Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn?
On our numbers Defensores De Belgrano have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Madryn 37%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn?
Our predicted score is Defensores De Belgrano 0–1 Deportivo Madryn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn?
Defensores De Belgrano vs Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Pasquale.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
