Value bet: Atletico DE Rafaela to win @ 4.10 – our chance 30% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensores De Belgrano to win ✗45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.42
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.21
Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Defensores De Belgrano take on Atletico DE Rafaela on Monday 30 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Juan Pasquale. Defensores De Belgrano are 15th with 39 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico DE Rafaela sit 11th on 47 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.6 for Atletico DE Rafaela. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensores De Belgrano 45%, draw 25%, Atletico DE Rafaela 30%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.42.
Value angle: Atletico DE Rafaela to win at 4.10 – 30% on our numbers against 24% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Defensores De Belgrano 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensores De Belgrano45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @2.65
Atletico DE Rafaela30%fair 3.39 · @4.10
1.56Expected goals
0.92Defensores De Belgrano xG
0.65Atletico DE Rafaela xG
46%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–021%
1–019%
0–114%
1–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Defensores De Belgrano 0.9 – 0.6 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensores De Belgrano to win✗
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.95
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.21
–
Form
Defensores De Belgrano – last 1
D
22 Feb
vs Godoy Cruz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 5
LWWLD
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Temperley
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Maipu
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Almagro
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores De Belgrano and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers Defensores De Belgrano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico DE Rafaela 30%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is Defensores De Belgrano 0–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Defensores De Belgrano vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Juan Pasquale.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
