Value bet: Sogndal to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSogndal to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Sogndal vs Moss preview and prediction
The match
Sogndal host Moss in the 1. Division on Sunday 14 June, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Fosshaugane Campus. Sogndal are 14th with 31 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Moss sit 13th on 32 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sogndal's last 5: WLDDL Most recently they beat Strommen 3–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Moss's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Stabaek 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.2 for Sogndal and 1.4 for Moss. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 70% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sogndal 57%, draw 17%, Moss 27%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Sogndal to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Sogndal 2–1 Moss. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sogndal57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw17%fair 5.96 · @3.95
Moss27%fair 3.77 · @2.95
3.65Expected goals
2.21Sogndal xG
1.44Moss xG
70%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–27%
2–06%
1–26%
From our goals model: Sogndal 2.2 – 1.4 Moss expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sogndal to win✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Half-time result
Sogndal ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sogndal / FT Sogndal✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.96
–
Form
Sogndal – last 6
WLDDLD
31 May
@ Strommen
3–2
W
25 May
@ Sandnes ULF
0–2
L
20 May
vs Stabaek
2–2
D
1 May
@ Bryne
3–3
D
6 Apr
@ ODD Ballklubb
0–4
L
29 Mar
vs Asane
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Moss – last 6
DLDLWL
30 May
vs Stabaek
2–2
D
25 May
@ Haugesund
1–3
L
20 May
vs Stromsgodset
1–1
D
1 May
@ Ranheim
0–4
L
6 Apr
@ Asane
3–2
W
29 Mar
@ Stabaek
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sogndal and Moss.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Sogndal vs Moss?
On our numbers Sogndal have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Moss 27%.
How many goals will there be in Sogndal vs Moss?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sogndal vs Moss?
Our predicted score is Sogndal 2–1 Moss, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Sogndal vs Moss?
Sogndal vs Moss (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Fosshaugane Campus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
