Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.30Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultGnistan to win ✓66% · @1.30
Double chanceGnistan or draw ✓88% · fair 1.13
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.86
Gnistan vs Mariehamn preview and prediction
The match
Mariehamn travel to Markku.fi Areena in the Veikkausliiga on Saturday 11 July (15:00 WAT) to face Gnistan. Gnistan are 5th with 46 points from 32 games, while Mariehamn sit 6th on 19 points. A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gnistan's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Lahti 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mariehamn's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to VPS 0–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Gnistan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 June 2026, finished Mariehamn 0–3 Gnistan.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Gnistan and 0.7 for Mariehamn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 44%.
Our pre-match pick was Gnistan to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Gnistan 1–0 Mariehamn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gnistan66%fair 1.50 · @1.30
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @4.65
Mariehamn12%fair 8.50 · @9.40
2.57Expected goals
1.91Gnistan xG
0.66Mariehamn xG
44%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Gnistan 1.9 – 0.7 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Gnistan to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers Gnistan have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mariehamn 12%.
How many goals will there be in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is Gnistan 1–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Markku.fi Areena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
