The Veikkausliiga sees VPS take on Mariehamn on Saturday 4 July, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Lemonsoft Stadion. VPS are 6th with 40 points from 32 games, while Mariehamn sit 6th on 19 points. A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
VPS's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Inter Turku 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Mariehamn's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Inter Turku 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
VPS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 2.0 for VPS and 0.7 for Mariehamn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: VPS 69%, draw 18%, Mariehamn 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: VPS 2–0 Mariehamn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VPS69%fair 1.45 · @1.27
Draw18%fair 5.41 · @4.75
Mariehamn13%fair 7.97 · @10.75
2.63Expected goals
1.97VPS xG
0.67Mariehamn xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–19%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: VPS 2.0 – 0.7 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VPS to win✓
69%
1.45
1.27
Double chance
VPS or draw✓
87%
1.14
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.48
Half-time result
VPS ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VPS / FT VPS✓
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.08
–
Form
VPS – last 6
LDWWDD
30 Jun
vs Inter Turku
2–3
L
27 Jun
@ Gnistan
1–1
D
23 Jun
vs AC Oulu
5–1
W
17 Jun
@ SJK
2–1
W
13 Jun
vs KuPS
1–1
D
10 Jun
@ KuPS
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
LLLLLL
27 Jun
vs Inter Turku
0–2
L
23 Jun
vs HJK Helsinki
0–4
L
18 Jun
@ AC Oulu
1–2
L
13 Jun
vs Gnistan
0–3
L
30 May
@ HJK Helsinki
0–1
L
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VPS and Mariehamn.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win VPS vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers VPS have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Mariehamn 13%.
How many goals will there be in VPS vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is VPS 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemonsoft Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
