Value bet: HJK Helsinki to win @ 1.94 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHJK Helsinki to win ✗56% · @1.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.64
VPS vs HJK Helsinki preview and prediction
The match
The Veikkausliiga sees VPS take on HJK Helsinki on Friday 22 May, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Lemonsoft Stadion. VPS are 6th with 40 points from 32 games, while HJK Helsinki sit 2nd on 59 points. A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
VPS's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Lahti 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 5.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
HJK Helsinki's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Rops 4–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
VPS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.8 for VPS and 1.5 for HJK Helsinki. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: VPS 22%, draw 22%, HJK Helsinki 56%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.67.
Value angle: HJK Helsinki to win at 1.94 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: VPS 0–1 HJK Helsinki. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VPS22%fair 4.47 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.45
HJK Helsinki56%fair 1.79 · @1.94
2.29Expected goals
0.80VPS xG
1.49HJK Helsinki xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–112%
0–211%
0–010%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: VPS 0.8 – 1.5 HJK Helsinki expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
HJK Helsinki to win✗
56%
1.79
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT HJK Helsinki / FT HJK Helsinki✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.64
–
Form
VPS – last 6
DWWWWD
18 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
13 May
vs ÅIFK
7–0
W
29 Apr
@ Leki
9–1
W
24 Apr
vs Ilves
3–2
W
14 Apr
@ SalPa II
11–0
W
10 Apr
vs FF Jaro
0–0
D
5.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
HJK Helsinki – last 6
WWDDWL
13 May
@ Rops
4–0
W
4 May
vs Lahti
1–0
W
29 Apr
@ Inter Turku
1–1
D
26 Apr
@ KuPS
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs SJK
3–0
W
27 Mar
@ Djurgardens IF
2–4
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VPS and HJK Helsinki.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win VPS vs HJK Helsinki?
On our numbers VPS have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HJK Helsinki 56%.
How many goals will there be in VPS vs HJK Helsinki?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our predicted score is VPS 0–1 HJK Helsinki, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is VPS vs HJK Helsinki?
VPS vs HJK Helsinki (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemonsoft Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
