Value bet: VPS to win @ 2.30 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultVPS to win46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.59
Mariehamn vs VPS preview and prediction
The match
VPS travel to face Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga on Saturday 2 May (15:00 WAT). Mariehamn are 6th with 19 points from 27 games, while VPS sit 6th on 40 points. A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mariehamn's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat HPS 2–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
VPS's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Leki 9–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Mariehamn and 1.3 for VPS. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mariehamn 32%, draw 22%, VPS 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.70.
Value angle: VPS to win at 2.30 – 46% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Mariehamn 0–1 VPS. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mariehamn32%fair 3.15 · @2.92
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
VPS46%fair 2.17 · @2.30
2.28Expected goals
0.99Mariehamn xG
1.28VPS xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mariehamn 1.0 – 1.3 VPS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VPS to win
46%
2.17
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.77
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.31
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VPS / FT VPS
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
13%
7.59
–
Form
Mariehamn – last 3
WLW
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ SJK
0–3
L
5 Mar
vs Lahti
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
VPS – last 6
WWWDDL
29 Apr
@ Leki
9–1
W
24 Apr
vs Ilves
3–2
W
14 Apr
@ SalPa II
11–0
W
10 Apr
vs FF Jaro
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Inter Turku
0–0
D
20 Mar
vs GIF Sundsvall
1–2
L
4.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mariehamn and VPS.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Mariehamn vs VPS?
On our numbers Mariehamn have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and VPS 46%.
How many goals will there be in Mariehamn vs VPS?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs VPS?
Our predicted score is Mariehamn 0–1 VPS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mariehamn vs VPS?
Mariehamn vs VPS (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
