Value bet: Ilves to win @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIlves to win ✗58% · @1.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.04
VPS vs Ilves preview and prediction
The match
Ilves travel to Lemonsoft Stadion in the Veikkausliiga on Friday 24 April (16:00 WAT) to face VPS. VPS are 6th with 40 points from 32 games, while Ilves sit 2nd on 38 points. Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
VPS's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat SalPa II 11–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.6 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ilves's last 3: DWW Most recently they drew with AC Oulu 2–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Ilves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.8 for VPS and 1.6 for Ilves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: VPS 21%, draw 20%, Ilves 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Ilves to win at 1.88 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: VPS 0–1 Ilves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
VPS21%fair 4.69 · @3.65
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.50
Ilves58%fair 1.72 · @1.88
2.42Expected goals
0.82VPS xG
1.60Ilves xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–112%
0–211%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%
From our goals model: VPS 0.8 – 1.6 Ilves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ilves to win✗
58%
1.72
1.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
2.05
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ilves / FT Ilves✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
VPS – last 5
WDDLW
14 Apr
@ SalPa II
11–0
W
10 Apr
vs FF Jaro
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ Inter Turku
0–0
D
20 Mar
vs GIF Sundsvall
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ SJK
6–0
W
3.6Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Ilves – last 3
DWW
21 Feb
vs AC Oulu
2–2
D
18 Feb
vs SJK
3–1
W
14 Feb
@ KuPS
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between VPS and Ilves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win VPS vs Ilves?
On our numbers VPS have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ilves 58%.
How many goals will there be in VPS vs Ilves?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for VPS vs Ilves?
Our predicted score is VPS 0–1 Ilves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is VPS vs Ilves?
VPS vs Ilves (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Lemonsoft Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
