Value bet: Lillestrom to win @ 2.60 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLillestrom to win44% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 8.81
Valerenga vs Lillestrom preview and prediction
The match
Lillestrom travel to Intility Arena in the Eliteserien on Sunday 19 April (13:30 WAT) to face Valerenga. Valerenga are 8th with 32 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Lillestrom sit 4th on 45 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Valerenga's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Viking 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lillestrom's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Tromso 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Valerenga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.1 for Valerenga and 1.3 for Lillestrom. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Lillestrom to win at 2.60 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valerenga 1–1 Lillestrom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valerenga35%fair 2.83 · @2.50
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.55
Lillestrom44%fair 2.27 · @2.60
2.45Expected goals
1.13Valerenga xG
1.32Lillestrom xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Valerenga 1.1 – 1.3 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win
44%
2.27
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.61
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
8.81
–
Form
Valerenga – last 6
LDWWWW
6 Apr
vs Viking
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs IFK Goteborg
3–3
D
22 Mar
@ Rosenborg
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Sandefjord
1–0
W
7 Mar
vs Stromsgodset
4–3
W
27 Feb
@ Rosenborg
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 6
DWLWDL
15 Apr
@ Tromso
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Molde
1–0
W
27 Mar
@ Orgryte IS
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Aalesund
3–1
W
27 Feb
@ Tromso
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Kongsvinger
2–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valerenga and Lillestrom.
What is the prediction for Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Valerenga have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lillestrom 44%.
How many goals will there be in Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Valerenga 1–1 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valerenga vs Lillestrom?
Valerenga vs Lillestrom (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Intility Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
