Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FC Lugano to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Lugano to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceFC Lugano or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.22
FC Lugano vs Lausanne preview and prediction
The match
The Super League sees FC Lugano take on Lausanne on Sunday 22 February, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadio di Cornaredo. FC Lugano are 1st with 34 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Lausanne sit 12th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for FC Lugano and 0.9 for Lausanne. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Lugano 62%, draw 25%, Lausanne 13%.
Safer route: FC Lugano or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.55.
Value angle: FC Lugano to win at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Lugano or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Lugano 2–0 Lausanne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Lugano62%fair 1.61 · @1.73
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.75
Lausanne13%fair 7.68 · @4.40
3.00Expected goals
2.09FC Lugano xG
0.91Lausanne xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Lugano 2.1 – 0.9 Lausanne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Lugano to win✓
62%
1.61
1.73 ▲
Double chance
FC Lugano or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Half-time result
FC Lugano ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Lugano / FT FC Lugano✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.22
–
Form
FC Lugano – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ FC Basel 1893
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lausanne – last 2
DD
19 Feb
@ Sigma Olomouc
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Servette FC
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Lugano and Lausanne.
Our pick is FC Lugano or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
On our numbers FC Lugano have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lausanne 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
Our predicted score is FC Lugano 2–0 Lausanne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FC Lugano vs Lausanne?
FC Lugano vs Lausanne (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio di Cornaredo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
