Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Leones Negros UDG take on Monarcas on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Monarcas sit 3rd on 26 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: DDLDD Most recently they drew with Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Monarcas's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Irapuato 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monarcas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.3 for Monarcas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Monarcas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG40%fair 2.53 · @2.44
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Monarcas37%fair 2.67 · @2.72
2.65Expected goals
1.35Leones Negros UDG xG
1.30Monarcas xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.3 – 1.3 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win✓
40%
2.53
2.44
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✓
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.53
–
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 5
DDLDD
28 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Monarcas – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Mar
vs Irapuato
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ Tapatío
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Monarcas 37%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Monarcas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas?
Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Atlante FC3