Tapatío host Monarcas in the Liga De Expansión MX on Monday 23 March, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Akron. Tapatío are 11th with 18 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Monarcas sit 3rd on 26 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Tapatío's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Monarcas's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Tepatitlán 3–2 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monarcas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Tapatío and 1.3 for Monarcas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tapatío 44%, draw 21%, Monarcas 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tapatío 1–1 Monarcas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tapatío44%fair 2.25 · @2.32
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50
Monarcas35%fair 2.87 · @2.84
2.89Expected goals
1.55Tapatío xG
1.34Monarcas xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Tapatío 1.6 – 1.3 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tapatío to win✓
44%
2.25
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tapatío / FT Tapatío✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.16
–
Form
Tapatío – last 3
LLD
14 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3–4
L
7 Mar
vs Cancún
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Monarcas – last 5
WLWWW
15 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
3–2
W
8 Mar
@ Atlante FC
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Dorados
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
1.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tapatío and Monarcas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tapatío vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Tapatío have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Monarcas 35%.
How many goals will there be in Tapatío vs Monarcas?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tapatío vs Monarcas?
Our predicted score is Tapatío 1–1 Monarcas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tapatío vs Monarcas?
Tapatío vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Monday 23 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
