Value bet: Tapatío to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTapatío to win ✗41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.94
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Alebrijes de Oaxaca take on Tapatío on Saturday 14 March, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT). Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th with 22 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Tapatío sit 11th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 4: LWLD Most recently they lost to Irapuato 2–6 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.5 for Tapatío. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 35%, draw 24%, Tapatío 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Tapatío to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca35%fair 2.87 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Tapatío41%fair 2.42 · @2.70
2.77Expected goals
1.31Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
1.46Tapatío xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.3 – 1.5 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tapatío to win✗
41%
2.42
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tapatío / FT Tapatío✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.94
–
Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 4
LWLD
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tapatío – last 2
LD
7 Mar
vs Cancún
1–2
L
28 Feb
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tapatío 41%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irapuato1