USL League One · USA · Ruoff Mortgage StadiumFort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise prediction & analysis
Fort Wayne or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Fort Wayne to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Fort Wayne 1.9 – 0.9 Sarasota Paradise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Fort Wayne are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 18% for Sarasota Paradise.
Fort Wayne have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Sarasota Paradise have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 for Fort Wayne, 0.9 for Sarasota Paradise). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Fort Wayne have won 0, Sarasota Paradise have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Fort Wayne or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Fort Wayne to win at 1.85 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fort Wayne to win ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Fort Wayne or draw ✗ | 82% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Fort Wayne ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Fort Wayne / FT Fort Wayne ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.17 | – |
Form
Fort Wayne – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Union Omaha | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Oct | @ Corpus Christi | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Forward Madison | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Charlotte Independence | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Naples | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs One Knoxville | 2–3 | L |
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
| 11 Oct | vs Richmond Kickers | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Charlotte Independence | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Portland Hearts of Pine | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Greenville Triumph | 6–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Forward Madison | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Spokane Velocity | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Sarasota Paradise v Fort Wayne | 2–2 |
USL League One table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Independence | 32 | +28 | 66 |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 32 | +20 | 62 |
| 3 |  Boise | 32 | +10 | 58 |
| 4 |  Forward Madison | 32 | +24 | 56 |
| 5 |  Spokane Velocity | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 6 |  One Knoxville | 32 | +16 | 54 |
| 7 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 32 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Naples | 32 | -7 | 46 |
| 9 |  Fort Wayne | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 10 |  Westchester SC | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 |  Sarasota Paradise | 32 | -2 | 40 |
| 12 |  Corpus Christi | 32 | -15 | 37 |
| 13 |  Alta | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 32 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 |  Greenville Triumph | 32 | -23 | 30 |
| 16 |  NY Cosmos | 32 | -26 | 27 |
| 17 |  Richmond Kickers | 32 | -28 | 26 |
More USL League One predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our pick is Fort Wayne or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise?
On our numbers Fort Wayne have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sarasota Paradise 18%.
How many goals will there be in Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise?
Fort Wayne vs Sarasota Paradise (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Ruoff Mortgage Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.