Value bet: Chattanooga Red Wolves to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChattanooga Red Wolves to win ✗42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.33
Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves preview and prediction
The match
The USL League One sees Sarasota Paradise take on Chattanooga Red Wolves on Thursday 20 August, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Premier Sports Campus. Sarasota Paradise are 11th with 40 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Chattanooga Red Wolves sit 7th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sarasota Paradise's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Charlotte Independence 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Chattanooga Red Wolves's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Fort Wayne 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Chattanooga Red Wolves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Sarasota Paradise and 1.5 for Chattanooga Red Wolves. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Chattanooga Red Wolves to win at 2.80 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarasota Paradise35%fair 2.87 · @2.25
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.40
Chattanooga Red Wolves42%fair 2.36 · @2.80
2.83Expected goals
1.33Sarasota Paradise xG
1.50Chattanooga Red Wolves xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sarasota Paradise 1.3 – 1.5 Chattanooga Red Wolves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chattanooga Red Wolves to win✗
42%
2.36
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chattanooga Red Wolves / FT Chattanooga Red Wolves✗
24%
4.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.33
–
Form
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
LLLDDL
16 Aug
@ Charlotte Independence
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ One Knoxville
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Miami FC
0–5
L
9 Jul
@ Greenville Triumph
0–0
D
4 Jul
@ Richmond Kickers
0–0
D
21 Jun
@ Corpus Christi
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chattanooga Red Wolves – last 6
WLLWWW
16 Aug
@ Fort Wayne
2–1
W
9 Aug
vs Union Omaha
1–3
L
30 Jul
@ Forward Madison
2–5
L
26 Jul
vs One Knoxville
1–0
W
19 Jul
@ Charlotte Independence
4–2
W
16 Jul
vs Alta
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarasota Paradise and Chattanooga Red Wolves.
What is the prediction for Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?
On our numbers Sarasota Paradise have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chattanooga Red Wolves 42%.
How many goals will there be in Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?
Our predicted score is Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?
Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves (USL League One) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Premier Sports Campus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
