Value bet: Charlotte Independence to win @ 2.40 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCharlotte Independence to win ✓47% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.86
Naples vs Charlotte Independence preview and prediction
The match
The USL League One sees Naples take on Charlotte Independence on Thursday 4 June, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex. Naples are 8th with 46 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Charlotte Independence sit 1st on 66 points (top of the table). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Naples's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Union Omaha 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Charlotte Independence's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Charlotte Independence arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Naples and 1.5 for Charlotte Independence. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Naples 33%, draw 21%, Charlotte Independence 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Charlotte Independence to win at 2.40 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Naples 1–1 Charlotte Independence. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naples33%fair 3.06 · @2.55
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.35
Charlotte Independence47%fair 2.15 · @2.40
2.69Expected goals
1.20Naples xG
1.50Charlotte Independence xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Naples 1.2 – 1.5 Charlotte Independence expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Charlotte Independence to win✓
47%
2.15
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Charlotte Independence / FT Charlotte Independence✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.86
–
Form
Naples – last 6
LWLLLL
31 May
@ Union Omaha
1–2
L
24 May
vs Westchester SC
1–0
W
14 May
@ Boise
0–2
L
3 May
vs One Knoxville
0–3
L
30 Apr
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs Orlando City SC
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Charlotte Independence – last 6
WWWWDL
31 May
@ Chattanooga Red Wolves
3–2
W
24 May
vs Forward Madison
3–1
W
10 May
@ Corpus Christi
3–1
W
7 May
vs Boise
1–0
W
3 May
@ Fort Wayne
2–2
D
19 Apr
@ One Knoxville
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naples and Charlotte Independence.
What is the prediction for Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
On our numbers Naples have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Charlotte Independence 47%.
How many goals will there be in Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Our predicted score is Naples 1–1 Charlotte Independence, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Naples vs Charlotte Independence?
Naples vs Charlotte Independence (USL League One) kicks off on Thursday 4 June 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Paradise Coast Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
