Sporting JAX vs Louisville City prediction & analysis
63%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouisville City to win ✓67% · @1.36
Double chanceLouisville City or draw ✓85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · fair 1.46
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
Louisville City travel to Hodges Stadium in the USL Championship on Thursday 22 October (00:30 WAT) to face Sporting JAX. Sporting JAX are 13th with 14 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Louisville City sit 4th on 47 points (in the top four). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sporting JAX's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Birmingham Legion 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Louisville City's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Indy Eleven 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Louisville City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.1 for Sporting JAX and 2.4 for Louisville City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sporting JAX 15%, draw 18%, Louisville City 67%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.65, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sporting JAX 1–2 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sporting JAX15%fair 6.67 · @6.00
Draw18%fair 5.45 · @4.75
Louisville City67%fair 1.50 · @1.36
3.54Expected goals
1.10Sporting JAX xG
2.44Louisville City xG
63%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–29%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: Sporting JAX 1.1 – 2.4 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
67%
1.50
1.36
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
45%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.53
–
Form
Sporting JAX – last 6
LLLLLW
15 Oct
vs Birmingham Legion
0–1
L
1 Oct
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
26 Sep
vs Loudoun United
1–4
L
16 Sep
@ Hartford Athletic
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Rhode Island
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Lexington
3–2
W
0.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
WWWDWL
18 Oct
vs Indy Eleven
4–1
W
10 Oct
@ Charleston Battery
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Hartford Athletic
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Hartford Athletic
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs Loudoun United
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting JAX and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Sporting JAX have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Louisville City 67%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Sporting JAX 1–2 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting JAX vs Louisville City?
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
