Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✗39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 11.30
Loudoun United vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
Loudoun United host New Mexico United in the USL Championship on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Segra Field. Loudoun United are 10th with 31 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Loudoun United's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Detroit City 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat FC Tulsa 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Loudoun United and 1.4 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 62%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Loudoun United 38%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.57.
Value angle: New Mexico United to win at 3.00 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Loudoun United 1–1 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Loudoun United38%fair 2.62 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.40
New Mexico United39%fair 2.56 · @3.00
2.75Expected goals
1.37Loudoun United xG
1.39New Mexico United xG
62%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Loudoun United 1.4 – 1.4 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✗
39%
2.56
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
11.30
–
Form
Loudoun United – last 6
DLWWDL
16 Aug
@ Detroit City
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs Charleston Battery
0–1
L
2 Aug
vs Hartford Athletic
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Indy Eleven
1–0
W
19 Jul
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
1–1
D
12 Jul
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWWWWW
16 Aug
vs FC Tulsa
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Monterey Bay
5–2
W
2 Aug
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
16 Jul
@ Lexington
4–1
W
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Loudoun United and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Loudoun United have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and New Mexico United 39%.
How many goals will there be in Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Loudoun United 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Loudoun United vs New Mexico United?
Loudoun United vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Segra Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
