Monterey Bay travel to Toyota Stadium in the USL Championship on Saturday 9 May (00:30 WAT) to face Lexington. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lexington's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Las Vegas Lights 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Monterey Bay's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to FC Tulsa 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Lexington and 0.8 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lexington 61%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay 18%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Lexington 1–0 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington61%fair 1.65 · @1.55
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.70
Monterey Bay18%fair 5.70 · @5.40
2.50Expected goals
1.72Lexington xG
0.78Monterey Bay xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.7 – 0.8 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Double chance
Lexington or draw✓
82%
1.21
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.07
–
Form
Lexington – last 6
LWDLLL
3 May
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–2
L
26 Apr
vs Forward Madison
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Orange County SC
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 6
LLDLDL
4 May
vs FC Tulsa
1–2
L
12 Apr
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Lexington have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Lexington 1–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs Monterey Bay?
Lexington vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
