Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca W to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.24
León W vs Toluca W preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX Femenil sees León W take on Toluca W on Wednesday 1 April, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT). León W are 7th with 25 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Toluca W sit 6th on 27 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
León W's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Pumas UNAM W 1–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Toluca W's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Mazatlán W 3–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Toluca W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.2 for León W and 2.1 for Toluca W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: León W 22%, draw 18%, Toluca W 61%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.48.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Toluca W to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: León W 1–2 Toluca W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
León W22%fair 4.62 · @3.60
Draw18%fair 5.67 · @3.70
Toluca W61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
3.32Expected goals
1.18León W xG
2.14Toluca W xG
65%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–18%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: León W 1.2 – 2.1 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca W to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
82%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.57
Half-time result
Toluca W ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca W / FT Toluca W✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
León W – last 5
LWLLL
28 Mar
@ Pumas UNAM W
1–2
L
24 Mar
vs Atlas W
4–0
W
17 Mar
vs Mazatlán W
1–3
L
14 Mar
@ América W
2–4
L
22 Feb
@ Tijuana W
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 6
WWLWWD
28 Mar
@ Mazatlán W
3–2
W
21 Mar
vs Necaxa W
5–1
W
17 Mar
@ América W
0–2
L
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between León W and Toluca W.
Our pick is Toluca W to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win León W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers León W have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Toluca W 61%.
How many goals will there be in León W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for León W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is León W 1–2 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is León W vs Toluca W?
León W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
