Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca W to win ✓79% · @1.02
Double chanceToluca W or draw ✓93% · fair 1.08
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.28
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Toluca W vs Necaxa W preview and prediction
The match
Necaxa W travel to face Toluca W in the Liga MX Femenil on Saturday 21 March (01:00 WAT). Toluca W are 6th with 27 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Necaxa W sit 18th on 1 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Toluca W's last 4: LWWD Most recently they lost to América W 0–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Necaxa W's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Atlético San Luis W 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Toluca W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 3.0 for Toluca W and 0.9 for Necaxa W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score in 48% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca W 79%, draw 14%, Necaxa W 7%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.28.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 3.5 goals – a 59% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Toluca W 3–1 Necaxa W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca W79%fair 1.27 · @1.02
Draw14%fair 7.32 · @19.00
Necaxa W7%fair 13.60 · @31.00
3.82Expected goals
2.96Toluca W xG
0.86Necaxa W xG
48%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
3–09%
2–18%
3–18%
4–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Toluca W 3.0 – 0.9 Necaxa W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca W to win✓
79%
1.27
1.02
Double chance
Toluca W or draw✓
93%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.28
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.15
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
1.44
Half-time result
Toluca W ahead at half-time✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca W / FT Toluca W✓
56%
1.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
9%
10.60
–
Form
Toluca W – last 4
LWWD
17 Mar
@ América W
0–2
L
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Necaxa W – last 3
DLL
15 Mar
vs Atlético San Luis W
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ Cruz Azul W
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs Santos Laguna W
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca W and Necaxa W.
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
On our numbers Toluca W have a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Necaxa W 7%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
Our predicted score is Toluca W 3–1 Necaxa W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Toluca W vs Necaxa W?
Toluca W vs Necaxa W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán W