América W host Toluca W in the Liga MX Femenil on Tuesday 17 March, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Azteca. América W are 1st with 37 points from 14 games (top of the table), while Toluca W sit 6th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
América W's last 3: WLD Most recently they beat León W 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Toluca W's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Pumas UNAM W 4–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Toluca W arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 3.1 for América W and 1.0 for Toluca W. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: América W 76%, draw 15%, Toluca W 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was América W to win – a 76% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: América W 3–1 Toluca W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
América W76%fair 1.31 · @1.27
Draw15%fair 6.54 · @5.50
Toluca W8%fair 12.18 · @9.80
4.17Expected goals
3.15América W xG
1.02Toluca W xG
64%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–18%
3–08%
2–18%
2–08%
4–16%
4–06%
From our goals model: América W 3.1 – 1.0 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
América W
Toluca W
Attack vs Liga MX Femenil average
+111%
+16%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
-5%
Our expected goals here
3.87
1.19
Our own ratings from every Liga MX Femenil result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
América W to win✓
76%
1.31
1.27
Double chance
América W or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.93 ▲
Half-time result
América W ahead at half-time✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time / full-time
HT América W / FT América W✗
56%
1.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
8%
12.18
–
Form
América W – last 3
WLD
14 Mar
vs León W
4–2
W
11 Mar
@ Guadalajara W
2–3
L
16 Feb
vs Monterrey W
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 3
WWD
13 Mar
vs Pumas UNAM W
4–2
W
21 Feb
@ Santos Laguna W
1–0
W
17 Feb
vs Pachuca W
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between América W and Toluca W.
Our pick is América W to win with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win América W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers América W have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Toluca W 8%.
How many goals will there be in América W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for América W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is América W 3–1 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is América W vs Toluca W?
América W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán W3