Value bet: Defensa Y Justicia to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Santa Fe to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia preview and prediction
The match
Union Santa Fe host Defensa Y Justicia in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 01:45 (WAT) at Estadio 15 de Abril. Union Santa Fe are 9th with 21 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Defensa Y Justicia sit 4th on 28 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Union Santa Fe's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Boca Juniors 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Defensa Y Justicia's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat San Lorenzo 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensa Y Justicia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Union Santa Fe and 1.3 for Defensa Y Justicia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Santa Fe 38%, draw 25%, Defensa Y Justicia 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Defensa Y Justicia to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Union Santa Fe 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Santa Fe38%fair 2.61 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Defensa Y Justicia36%fair 2.76 · @3.10
2.70Expected goals
1.37Union Santa Fe xG
1.33Defensa Y Justicia xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.4 – 1.3 Defensa Y Justicia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Santa Fe to win✗
38%
2.61
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Santa Fe / FT Union Santa Fe✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.84
–
Form
Union Santa Fe – last 6
LLLWWW
3 Oct
@ Boca Juniors
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Independiente
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Talleres Cordoba
1–2
L
8 Sep
vs Instituto Cordoba
3–2
W
28 Aug
vs Sarmiento Junin
4–1
W
21 Aug
@ Aldosivi
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Defensa Y Justicia – last 6
WDWLWW
3 Oct
vs San Lorenzo
3–0
W
18 Sep
@ Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–2
D
11 Sep
vs Gimnasia M.
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Lanus
0–1
L
31 Aug
vs Platense
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Belgrano Cordoba
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Santa Fe and Defensa Y Justicia.
What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensa Y Justicia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our predicted score is Union Santa Fe 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 01:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 15 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Barracas Central2
Huracan0
Tigre1
Banfield2