Value bet: Gimnasia M. to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✗38% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.10
Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors preview and prediction
The match
Boca Juniors travel to Victor Legrotaglie in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday 5 September (20:30 WAT) to face Gimnasia M.. Gimnasia M. are 17th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Boca Juniors sit 1st on 63 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gimnasia M.'s last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Independiente 3–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Boca Juniors's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Velez Sarsfield 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Gimnasia M. and 1.1 for Boca Juniors. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gimnasia M. 36%, draw 26%, Boca Juniors 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Gimnasia M. to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.96, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gimnasia M. 1–1 Boca Juniors. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia M.36%fair 2.77 · @3.00
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.90
Boca Juniors38%fair 2.63 · @2.45
2.21Expected goals
1.09Gimnasia M. xG
1.12Boca Juniors xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Gimnasia M. 1.1 – 1.1 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Juniors to win✗
38%
2.63
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Juniors / FT Boca Juniors✗
21%
4.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.10
–
Form
Gimnasia M. – last 6
WWWLWL
30 Aug
@ Independiente
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Gimnasia L.P.
3–2
W
18 Aug
vs Talleres Cordoba
3–1
W
9 Aug
@ Instituto Cordoba
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Union Santa Fe
2–0
W
28 Jul
@ San Lorenzo
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Boca Juniors – last 6
DWDWDW
3 Sep
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Lanus
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Racing Club
1–1
D
18 Aug
@ Deportivo Recoleta
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ Platense
1–1
D
11 Aug
vs Deportivo Recoleta
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia M. and Boca Juniors.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
On our numbers Gimnasia M. have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Boca Juniors 38%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia M. 1–1 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors?
Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Victor Legrotaglie.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Aldosivi3
Banfield1
Gimnasia L.P.2
Tigre1